Standings below are from the race tracker's 21:00 UTC report on Tuesday 3 November. The maps, routes and arrival times are our own routing from the 13:00 UTC report on the ECMWF high-resolution run of 00:00 UTC, the same data as our Ultim update video for The Foil.
The lead, then the light air
By 07:45 UTC this morning SVR-Lazartigue led Maxi Banque Populaire XI by 60 nm, after averaging 32.5 kn through the night against Le Cléac'h's 30.4 kn. At the 13:00 UTC report the gap was 71.5 nm, with SVR doing 28.9 kn and 2,026 nm to go.
On the north side of the Azores high, our routing on this morning's ECMWF run takes the leaders through a band of very light wind this afternoon and evening, with seven to eight hours below 8 knots and boat speeds falling from the mid-30s to around 10 knots. The boats in front reach it first, and the boats behind keep sailing fast until they get there.
That is how the afternoon played out. By 21:00 UTC SVR had 1,990 nm to go, only 37 nm closer to the finish than at 13:00. Banque Populaire's gap went from 71.5 nm at 13:00 to 22.8 nm at 16:00, then back out to 34.2 nm at 21:00. The bigger move was behind them: Ultim Armand Thiery (Louis Burton) cut its deficit from 219 nm to 64 nm, and SODEBO Ultim 3 (Thomas Coville), whose tracker stopped reporting for a time this morning, from 234 nm to 121 nm.
The night a wind shift sorted the pack
Through Monday evening the Ultims sailed in a south-south-easterly breeze. In about three hours at each boat it swung to the north, along a line near 46 N, 27 W. The tracker shows each boat's speed dip as it crossed: SVR at about 21:30 UTC, down to 23 kn; Banque Populaire just before midnight, down to 22 kn; SODEBO, Armand Thiery and Gitana 18 between 23:30 and 01:30 UTC, each down to 12 kn.
The leader paid least. SVR averaged 29.7 kn through the three hours of the shift and 34.2 kn in the three hours after it. SODEBO's three-hour average fell from 31.4 to 21.0 kn, and Armand Thiery's from 29.3 to 21.0 kn.
Gitana 18 and ACTUAL Ultim 4
Gitana 18. At 03:30 UTC Caudrelier's Maxi Edmond de Rothschild was doing 33.6 kn. Fifteen minutes later the tracker read 28.1 kn, then 17.4 kn at 04:00 and 11.4 kn at 04:15. The team reported a failure of the port foil shortly before 05:00 Paris time, about 400 nm north of the Azores, in 20 to 25 kn of northerly wind and a three-metre sea. They called it a major incident, said the skipper is fine and the situation under control, and were assessing the damage and their options. Caudrelier was fourth at the time. At the 13:00 UTC report he was heading east at 18 kn, 402 nm behind the leader, and the team had not said publicly what it plans.
ACTUAL Ultim 4. Marchand's central rudder hit something at 06:52 UTC on Monday, about 400 nm off the tip of Brittany, while he was third. He has put his race on hold and is heading for Ireland to meet his technical team.
What comes next
Tonight: out of the ridge. On the forecast, the wind fills back in from the south-south-west for the leaders between 20:00 and 23:00 UTC, 13 to 17 kn by midnight; the boats behind enter the light air later and close up while the leaders are slow.
Wednesday: a cold front. The front reaches the leaders between 04:00 and 08:00 UTC on Wednesday, Banque Populaire first because it is furthest north-west. Behind it the wind is 24 to 28 kn from the north-north-west to north, and on our routes the Ultims average about 40 kn for long stretches through Wednesday and Thursday.
The finish. The last hours into Pointe-à-Pitre are light, around 8 kn from the south-west. From the 13:00 UTC report, our routes put SVR-Lazartigue across the line at 01:18 local time on Saturday 7 November, Banque Populaire at 02:20, Armand Thiery at 04:08, SODEBO at 04:14, LIAMM at 07:44 and IDEC at 13:44. Gitana 18 and ACTUAL have no route because they are not sailing toward the finish.
These routes use one forecast run and the same performance model for every boat. They show where the weather will shape the race, not a prediction of who wins; this afternoon's swing in the lead is a reminder of how much the order can move in light air.
The rest of the fleet
At 21:00 UTC our live standings had Basile Bourgnon (Edenred 5) leading the Ocean Fifty fleet by 16.3 nm from Thibaut Vauchel-Camus (Solidaires En Peloton), and Corentin Horeau (MACSF) leading the IMOCAs by 114 nm from Francesca Clapcich (11th Hour Racing). Luca Rosetti (Maccaferri Futura) leads the Class40s by 16.5 nm from Robin Follin (Solano), Kieran Le Borgne (Armor-Lux) the Vintage Monohulls by 15.1 nm, and Damien Seguin (Arkea - Handicap International) the Vintage Multihulls by 11.6 nm.
Francis Joyon capsized his trimaran Océans in the Celtic Sea on Monday afternoon; the race organisation said he was picked up by a cargo ship that night and is well. Violette Dorange (Initiatives Coeur) collided with Romain Pilliard's Use It Again shortly after the start; she reached Roscoff with a damaged starboard foil and plans repairs in Lorient, while Pilliard's race is also halted.
Sources
Positions, speeds and gaps are from the official race tracker, read every 15 minutes. The tracker's distance to go follows the course; gaps between boats are the same either way. Forecast figures are from our routing on ECMWF HRES, 3 November 00:00 UTC. Incident details are from the team and race statements as reported by France 3 Bretagne, France 24 / AFP, DH, ScanVoile and Eurosport / AFP.